Blue Jackets left winger Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew, died when a suspected drunk driver crashed hiscar into them while they were cycling near their New Jersey home. The announcement was made last Friday morning. Johnny leaves behind his wife, Meredith, and two young kids, Noa and Johnny. A GoFundMe page has been set up for Matthew's wife, Madeline, who's expecting their baby boy, Tripp.
Condolences to the Gaudreau family. Please don't drink and drive.
Columbus Blue Jackets
27-43-12, 66 Pts. 8th Metro, 29th Overall
2.85 GF/GP (25th), 3.63 GA/GP (31st), 15.1 PP% (31st), 76.3 PK% (26th)
Top scorer: Johnny Gaudreau. 81 GP. 12-48-60, 18 PPP, 160 shots, 18:49 TOI/GP
2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:
Opening: +25000
Current: +30000 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 1.0%. Handle: 0.2% (as of August 22, 2024)
2023-24 Fantasy Recap
We knew the Jackets would lose a lot of games, but the hardest pill to swallow was the lack of improvement from the previous season. By February, the Jackets indicated they would clean house after firing GM Jarmo Kekalainen, and head coach Pascal Vincent followed soon afterwards in June.
Not everything went poorly for the Jackets, but the mixed bag certainly featured more bad than good. On the plus side, Johnny Gaudreau led the team in scoring once again, Zach Werenski managed to stay healthy and play 70 games and set a career high in points, Cole Sillinger bounced back after a disappointing sophom*ore season, and they discovered a fun all-Russian line with Kirill Marchenko, Yegor Chinakhov and Dmitri Voronkov.
Werenski, in particular, was underrated in fantasy. He finished 12th in scoring among defensem*n and registered over 200 shots and 100 blocks. The drawback was the lack of power-play production; had the Jackets been better in that regard, Werenski could've easily eclipsed 60 points. Fantasy managers who bet on Werenski to have a big bounce-back season were handsomely rewarded.
On the other end of the spectrum: Adam Fantilli's highly-anticipated rookie season was cut short by injuries, captain Boone Jenner and top-line sniper Patrik Laine also missed significant time, Kent Johnson's development took a step back, and a revamped defense ended up allowing the second-highest shots and goals per game.
In short, the Jackets offered very little in fantasy other than Werenski. There were players worth streaming for short stretches, but ultimately nobody came close to the value Artemi Panarin or Rick Nash provided for fantasy managers in past seasons.
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2024-25 Fantasy Outlook
Gaudreau's untimely death has both the entire league and the Jackets grieving a heavy loss. Not only was Gaudreau their best player, his presence was a bright light for a club that has seen far more disappointments than successes, and his decision to sign with the Jackets when many others have spurned them was viewed as a bright beacon of hope. He will be missed dearly.
There is no replacing Gaudreau. If Werenski can stay healthy, he represents the Jackets' top option in fantasy, and it's reflected as such in Yahoo's pre-season rankings where no forward is ranked higher than 166th. (Laine is ranked 186th, and his absence created another void up front).
It was a minor miracle Werenski finished with an even plus-minus rating, but it's also worth noting his secondary assist per 60 minutes (0.76) nearly doubled from his career average, per NHL.com. Further, the Jackets outperformed their expected goals vs. actual goals at 5-on-5 (61.65 vs. 80) by a significant margin with thanks to an absurd 11.27 shooting percentage when Werenski was on the ice, per naturalstattrick.com.
Some of the impact is improved play from Werenski, but a spike in secondary assists and shooting percentage, statistics that tend to be more luck-based, usually signals an anomaly; if we're taking the over/under for Werenski to match last season's 57 points for the 2024-25 season, the smart bet is to go under.
We can instead bet on the Jackets' upside with Fantilli, a future No. 1 center; Marchenko, who's developing into a top-line goal scorer; Jenner, who's always been productive in banger leagues; and various young players (Johnson, Sillinger, Chinakhov, Jiricek) sprinkled throughout their lineup, but the upside just isn't high enough to warrant anything more than mid- to late-round picks. The lack of certainty regarding their lineup, which was difficult to project and features many different combinations, makes it even harder to make predictions.
The Jackets are still trying to figure out their identity — they've looked lost since John Tortorella left — and given the lack of high-end talent, an (over)reliance on young players, an overcrowded blue line and shaky goaltending, they will not be much of a factor in fantasy. Dean Evason's squads are generally built on effort and physicality, not free-wheeling playmaking and scoring. Perhaps he can squeeze more juice out of this lineup, but there's little evidence the Jackets can be a consistent threat to score. It would not be surprising to see them rank among the bottom five in offense again.
What's worse is their horrible schedule for h2h leagues. The Jackets play the third-most games on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, the three busiest nights of the NHL schedule. That assures very few Jackets, if any, will be rostered throughout the fantasy season since there will be much better options available at all times.
Related: 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team-by-Team Schedule Analysis
2024-25 Projected Lineup
Even Strength
Boone Jenner - Sean Monahan - Kirill Marchenko
Dmitri Voronkov -Adam Fantilli - Justin Danforth
Kent Johnson - Cole Sillinger - Yegor Chinakhov
Mathieu Olivier - Sean Kuraly - Dylan Gambrell
Zach Werenski - Damon Severson
Ivan Provorov - Erik Gudbranson
Jordan Harris - David Jiricek
Elvis Merzlikins - Daniil Tarasov
ex: Trey Fix-Wolansky, Jack Johnson, Jake Christiansen
Power Play
Jenner - Monahan - Fantilli - Marchenko - Werenski
Johnson - Sillinger - Chinakhov - Voronkov - Provorov
Sleeper: Kirill Marchenko, RW
With back-to-back 20-goal seasons, Marchenko is a good bet to finish the season as the Jackets' leader in goals. He shoots the puck quite a bit, perhaps more than any Jacket, and he'll likely get both L1 and PP1 deployment. There aren't any specific sets of underlying data to suggest Marchenko is on the verge of breaking out, but his role relative to his pre-season Yahoo draft ranking certainly presents an opportunity to buy low.
With a new GM and coach behind the bench, the biggest worry about Marchenko will be finding himself in Dean Evason's doghouse. Marchenko is not a polished two-way player at this point in his career, and Evason has always pressed on his players to play both ends of the ice. If Marchenko falls out of favor, he will lose his top-six minutes. I like Marchenko as a low-risk, medium-upside pick in the later rounds.
Breakout: Yegor Chinakhov, RW
Chinakhov turned heads when he was drafted 21st overall by the Jackets in 2020, and he's going to turn heads again when people realize how dangerous he is in open ice. With blazing speed and a wicked shot, Chinakhov's No. 2 on the pecking order among goal-scoring wingers on the Jackets behind Marchenko. Chinakhov ranked in the 90th percentile in both top skating speed and top shot speed, according to NHL EDGE.
What was supposed to be a breakout season in 2023-24— Chinakhov was on pace for 24 goals, 20 assists and 170 shots — was cut short by injury. Otherwise, Chinakhov would've put up similar totals to Marchenko. The underlying stats are encouraging, too; for two straight seasons, Chinakhov's possession and goal share metrics have trended up, and his IPP of 78.79 at 5-on-5, per naturalstattrick.com, suggests a player who has the ability to carry a scoring line.
He's ranked far too low on Yahoo's pre-season lists, likely due to his limited appearances last season, and he'd be another low-risk, medium-upside risk in the later rounds if Marchenko is not available.
THN Columbus editor Jason Newland on Chinakhov potentially outscoring the other Jackets' young forwards:
"Yegor Chinakhov had a breakout season last year before injury. He seemed to be playing on another level. Kent Johnson is due for a comeback season as well. If they both stay healthy and play on the same line, which is projected, they both could stack up the points. But I do feel Chinakhov will win the race in points. Dmitri Voronkov will score a bunch of goals, but won't come close in points."
Bounce-back: Adam Fantilli, C
We could also pick Johnson in this category.Look up 'sophom*ore slump' in the dictionary and you'll see his picture. After a 40-point rookie season, Johnson shuffled up and down, and in and out of the lineup. He's supremely skilled but I wonder many times if he's a tweener or a legit top-six player, and I definitely don't think he's a center. (He will gain LW eligibility soon enough). Johnson lacks defensive acumen and physicality, which makes it difficult for me to envision Evason giving him a lot of minutes.
That leaves Fantilli, whose season was cut short by injury and I think he'll get back on track to prove he's on the way to being a No. 1 center. He has more of his coach's trust than Marchenko, Chinakhov or Johnson, and he's assured of a top-six role. Fantilli started in the offensive zone over 70 percent of the time last season, and if that kind of deployment continues, he has a good chance to lead the Jackets in scoring. Fantilli certainly has more value in keeper leagues, but if Fantilli can score 20 goals and reach 100 hits this season, he'll play his way onto redraft banger league rosters as well.
THN Columbus editor Jason Newland on Fantilli possibly leading the team in scoring this season:
"I don't believe [Fantilli] will lead the team in scoring. He has said his personal goal for this next season is 50 points. Fantilli is going to have a breakout season, but I think it's in year 3. 50 points would be great for him in my book."
Bust: Elvis Merzlikins, G
Over the past three seasons, only two other goalies have been worse than Merzlikins in goals saved above average at 5-on-5, according to naturalstattrick.com: James Reimer and Philipp Grubauer. Translation: Merzlikins' play is not trending in the right direction. During that same span, Merzlikins has not been able to put in a quality start in half the games he plays, according to hockey-reference.com, and his numbers have been dipping since his rookie season.
Merzlikins will not be drafted in most leagues, but I think the big bust is realized when Daniil Tarasov takes over. He posted far better numbers and he's been far more reliable than Merzlikins, and on a team with no pressure to win games, I suspect we'll see them splitting the starts until one of them pulls ahead.
Goalies
I've made my stance on Merzlikins pretty clear, but he certainly has his supporters. I was one of them once, but having requested a trade previously, I feel Merzlikins' best chance of being an undisputed No. 1 goalie again may be elsewhere.
Tarasov intrigues me more. He's younger and looked very promising in 23 starts last season. Despite playing half or even one-third of the minutes of other goalies, Tarasov still ranked 16th in total goals saved above average at 5-on-5, and 10th in GSAA per 60 minutes, per naturalstattrick.com.
Overall, though, the Jackets' goalies are not a desirable fantasy asset. They're streamers at best, and in most cases you're looking for a huge volume of saves, not a good save percentage, GAA or even a win. This will severely limit the opportunities they will be utilized in fantasy hockey, except in leagues where all goalies are in high demand or where fantasy managers look forward to getting stomach ulcers.
THN Columbus editor Jason Newland on the Merzlikins vs. Tarasov:
"Tarasov came on strong towards the end of the season, but with Don Waddell giving Elvis a chance to prove he's the No. 1, I think he will take the reins and be the No. 1. Elvis thrives on attention, and with Waddell giving him positive attention, this could be what he needs to be the top guy again."
Jason’s Top 5 Point Projections
(based on 82 games)
Adam Fantilli, C - 23-27-50
Sean Monahan, C - 22-27-49
Kirill Marchenko, RW - 27-20-47
Zach Werenski, D - 12-30-42
Yegor Chinakhov, RW - 22-20-42
Kent Johnson, C - 15-26-41
Yahoo Pre-season Rankings
152. Zach Werenski, D
166. Adam Fantilli, C
213. Boone Jenner, C/LW
283. Elvis Merzlikins, G
285. Kent Johnson, C
323. Sean Monahan, C
342. Kirill Marchenko, RW
435. Daniil Tarasov, G
449. Cole Sillinger, C
497. Dmitri Voronkov, LW
513. Sean Kuraly, C
517. Ivan Provorov, D
570. Damon Severson, D
573. Yegor Chinakhov, RW
619. Justin Danforth, RW
787. David Jiricek, D
1090. Jordan Dumais, RW
1149. Gavin Brindley, C
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